Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p> Climate change is the main drier of biodiversity loss across continents and its effects need to be investigated seriously to inform decisions on possible mitigation measures to assure conservation and sustainable use of natural resources. We therefore examined the effect of climate change on the spatial distribution, ecological niches, niche overlaps, and niche shifts of the plant-communities of <italic>Triplochiton scleroxylon, Terminalia superba</italic> , and <italic>Antiaris toxicaria.</italic> We used SDM packages that offered the possibility to compare the performances of several modelling methods. Based on the results on algorithms’ performances in our previous studies, we used three machine learning algorithms: MaxEnt, Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Random Forests (RF). From the main results, RF and Maxent outperformed BRT algorithm with respect to the key statistic values, AUC and TSS. However, Maxent outperformed the other algorithms with respect to its realistic predictions at present. Confidence intervals of Sorensen and Jaccard overlap statistics approved the hypervolumes’ overlaps of <italic>Triplochiton scleroxylon, Terminalia superba</italic> , and <italic>Antiaris toxicaria</italic> at 95% degree of confidence and therefore confirmed their degree of community. The degree of community between the three species is also confirmed in the future scenarios, SSP 245 and SSP 585, horizon 2040 with the General Circulation Model (GCM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6). Under climate change, there will be niche shifts as a response of the plant community and species to track more favorable environmental conditions for survival. Also under climate change, the plant-community will extend its spatial distribution mainly in West and Central Africa but will retract its distribution in East and Southern Africa where it will however survive with only one or two of the dominant species, namely <italic>Terminalia superba</italic> and / or <italic>Antiaris toxicaria</italic> . Management interventions are suggested to enhance in time and space, sustainable wood and biomass production of the plant-community. </p>