Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Background Rwanda's rapid electric mobility transition is generating a growing stream of end-of-life lithium iron phosphate batteries against a backdrop of zero domestic processing capacity for any chemical recovery pathway. The sovereign policy frameworks governing this transition reveal a dangerous linear policy lag, with Extended Producer Responsibility mandates only now entering the drafting phase. Methods This study employs a deterministic stock and flow model built using primary field data from active Battery-as-a-Service operators in Kigali, combined with deductive thematic coding of national policy documents. Results The model projects an annual Circularity Deficit of 319.59 tonnes, representing a complete recycling shortfall. As localized recycling remains unprofitable, linear disposal strips between USD 42,920 and USD 245,680 of unrecovered lithium value from the domestic economy annually, compounding to USD 1.23 million by 2030. Systematic coding confirms a profound structural regulatory misalignment across eight sovereign frameworks, with primary elicitation revealing the state has committed no capital toward physical recycling infrastructure, allocating USD 1.7 million to policy drafting alone. This study translates that gap into a costed Extended Producer Responsibility escrow, indexed at USD 1.45 to USD 4.00 per kilowatt hour of imported battery capacity, raising USD 214,600 to USD 592,000 in capital by 2030 to fund the collection infrastructure this transition currently lacks. Conclusions As the first empirical quantification of the Circularity Deficit, resource value loss, and a costed Extended Producer Responsibility instrument for a Lithium Iron Phosphate commercial fleet in an East African context, the findings provide a scalable analytical framework for peripheral e-mobility adopters across the Global South.</p>