Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>This study explores the critical intersection of environmental change and micro-level socioeconomic vulnerability by examining how climate variability, specifically relative humidity that influences household food insecurity. Focused on two climate-sensitive Indonesian provinces, Aceh and West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), the research addresses the growing phenomenon of food insecurity exacerbated by changing environmental conditions. By isolating relative humidity as a specific climate driver, this paper contributes novel empirical evidence on its micro-level impacts, filling a gap in the literature regarding how these specific climate variables affect diverse demographic segments on a massive household scale. To conduct this analysis, the study utilizes pooled microdata from the 2018 and 2024 National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS), encompassing 294,919 households in Aceh and 13,424 in NTB. This extensive dataset is merged with district-level climate indicators. The researchers employ logistic regression and clustered robust regression to measure both the primary and heterogeneous effects of climate variables, rigorously controlling for a range of socio-demographic and economic factors. The empirical results consistently demonstrate that higher relative humidity significantly increases food insecurity across both provinces. Furthermore, clustered robust regression estimates reveal that this adverse effect is substantially stronger for households already experiencing high levels of food insecurity, highlighting a pronounced vulnerability. Subgroup analyses indicate that rural and male-headed households bear the brunt of these climate-induced shocks. Conversely, higher household expenditure remains the strongest predictor of food security, while education and access to basic infrastructure, such as electricity and clean water, serve as crucial mitigating factors that protect against these environmental impacts. Ultimately, this research demonstrates that rising relative humidity acts as a significant shock to household food security, disproportionately affecting already vulnerable populations. The findings underscore the urgent need for policymakers to design and implement climate-resilient rural development policies. By integrating targeted climate adaptation strategies with poverty reduction initiatives, educational access, and infrastructure improvements, policymakers can effectively bolster household resilience against future climate shocks. JEL Code: D13, I31, J22, K31</p>