Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p> <bold>Background:</bold> Global dietary strategies increasingly target saturated fatty acids (SFAs) to curb cardiovascular diseases (CVD). While global guidelines associate tropical oils (TOs) with cardiovascular risk via LDL-C elevation, raw and minimally processed African Red Palm Oil (RPO) retains cardioprotective tocotrienols and carotenoids. In lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs), TOs—specifically refined palm olein containing up to 50 g of SFAs per 100 g—serve as crucial, low-cost caloric vehicles. Sweeping global restrictions risk exacerbating Vitamin A deficiency while spiking household food expenditures, threatening food security and necessitating a stratified regulatory approach. <bold>Objective:</bold> This paper models the public health and nutritional trade-offs of implementing a strict World Health Organization (WHO) 10% SFA energy cap across six structurally diverse LMICs (Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco) compared to High-Income Countries (HICs). <bold>Methodology:</bold> Using national food consumption surveys, we executed an intake assessment and dietary risk reduction simulation modeling. The model simulated a mandatory 50% substitution of palm olein with high-polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) oils, tracking impacts on total SFA intake, cardiovascular risk metrics (LDL-C/HDL-C ratio), household food expenditures, and Vitamin A intake. <bold>Results:</bold> In HICs, the simulation successfully reduced SFA intake below the 10% threshold with minimal economic disruption. In contrast, LMICs exhibited severe friction points. In Nigeria and Ghana, the substitution triggered a 15–22% spike in household food costs and a precipitous 30% drop in dietary Vitamin A access. In Egypt and South Africa, the model predicted moderate CVD risk reduction but high vulnerability to international oil supply shocks. <bold>Conclusion:</bold> A singular, flat SFA mandate creates a public health paradox in lipid-dependent LMICs. <bold>Policy Recommendations:</bold> Global health bodies must transition from blanket nutrient caps to "Contextual Nutrition Frameworks" that differentiate industrial processing from domestic food security vehicles, subsidize regional soft-oil value chains and safeguard micronutrient status. </p>