Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>This study evaluates local seismic hazards and recurrence intervals in the northeastern region of Crete, Greece, using an exponential renewal process. Utilizing historical and instrumental data from the European Archive of Historical Earthquake Data (AHEAD) and the Geophysical Laboratory of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, we compiled a complete catalog of major seismic events (Mw > 6.7) spanning the period 1500–1935 AD. Non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests validate that the inter-event times closely follow an exponential distribution (p = 0.959 for Kolmogorov-Smirnov and p = 0.802 for Anderson-Darling), confirming a memoryless Poisson process for mainshock generation. The estimated mean annual occurrence rate (λ) is 0.02108. Given that the last catastrophic event within this spatial cluster occurred on February 25, 1935, the cumulative distribution function yields a conditional probability of 85% (0.85) for a subsequent major earthquake occurrence within a time horizon of 90+ years. These findings provide a simplified yet robust statistical framework for regional seismic hazard assessment.</p>