Inferring First and Second Use Lifespan Indicators for Household Appliances from Peruvian Survey Data

<title>Abstract</title> <p>The circular economy aims to keep materials in use and reduce disposal in landfills. In this context, household appliances at the end of their life cycle can become a source of recoverable materials. Estimating this potential requires information on appliance useful life, including possible second-use phases through resale, donation, storage, repair, or reuse. This exploratory study provides, to our knowledge, the first nationally representative model-based assessment of household appliance longevity and reuse patterns in Peru from 2008–2024. We apply an EM–Weibull mixture model to National Household Survey (ENAHO) data, where appliance retirement and transfer dates are not directly observed. We estimate population-weighted first-use and second-use indicators for 12 appliance categories and identify three ownership diffusion patterns: rapid saturation, essential goods, and obsolescent devices. The results provide empirical evidence on appliance lifecycle patterns in Peru and illustrate how mixture models can be used to infer lifespan dynamics from limited survey data.</p>