Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p> <italic>Context</italic> Understanding how landscape change affects wildlife habitat involves integrative approaches that consider landscape structure at different scales, target species, and habitat requirements. <italic>Objectives</italic> We assessed the effects of land use and land cover (LULC) change on the availability and spatial configuration of potentially suitable habitat for three threatened large carnivores in the Iberian Peninsula: the Iberian wolf ( <italic>Canis lupus</italic> ), brown bear ( <italic>Ursus arctos</italic> ), and Iberian lynx ( <italic>Lynx pardinus</italic> ). <italic>Methods</italic> Habitat suitability was modeled for presence and breeding requirements for 1990, 2006 and 2018, and for two 2060 scenarios (rural abandonment and agricultural intensification), projected using an artificial neural network–cellular automata approach. Fragmentation was assessed via density and clustering metrics within moving windows scaled to species home ranges. <italic>Results</italic> The Iberian wolf held the largest share of suitable presence habitat but showed markedly lower connectivity for breeding habitat, a critical bottleneck. In the northwestern peninsula, brown bear habitat clustering declined despite population expansion, suggesting a temporary decoupling between demographic recovery and habitat deterioration. The Iberian lynx exhibited the highest connectivity for breeding habitat, reflecting the continuity of Mediterranean scrublands. At the Iberian scale, habitat availability and configuration remained stable between 1990 and 2018, though regional analysis revealed stronger local fragmentation. Habitat availability and connectivity are projected to improve under rural abandonment, but agricultural intensification would reduce availability and increase fragmentation, with severe consequences for bear and lynx. <italic>Conclusions</italic> Landscape change, in its composition, structure, and trajectory, threatens large carnivore habitat in the Iberian Peninsula, particularly under agricultural intensification. </p>