Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>High-impact security threats can affect urban resilience by influencing performance of critical infrastructure, capabilities for responding to emergencies, continuity of infrastructure, trust of people, and stability of society. While considerable attention has been paid to assessing urban resilience to natural and infrastructural threats, there are relatively few approaches to evaluating resilience to intentional security threats at a fine spatial resolution. This paper proposes the novel integrated Bayesian-Fuzzy GIS approach to assessment of urban resilience to high-impact security threats based on analysis of attractiveness and vulnerability of urban targets at the parcel level. To demonstrate its applicability, the District 5 of Tehran city has been used as the case study. In accordance with the results, the classes that are considered most attractive in terms of security threats include police/law enforcement, religious/symbolic, military/security, governmental/institutional, and crowded public areas. According to fuzzy SWARA II, the most important resilience criteria are land use, population, and building architectural type. Baseline resilience map shows that 8.86% of the spatial units analyzed have a very high level of resilience, 29.17% – high, 30.54% – moderate, 23.99% – low, and 7.44% – very low. According to the post-intervention map of resilience, the share of very high and high resilience increased from 38.03% to 69.13% while the share of low resilience decreased from 23.99% to 3.53%. Thus, the results prove the effectiveness of combining target attractiveness with resilience mapping at the parcel level for better interventions prioritization.</p>