Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p> Setting evidence-based wildlife population targets is critical for policymakers and managers, yet a persistent challenge for conservation scientists—especially for species that are locally abundant, globally threatened, conflict-prone, and charismatic. This study explores ecological, biological, and social dimensions of target population sizes using an integrated carrying capacity framework, which combines three core concepts: ecological carrying capacity (ECC), minimum viable population (MVP, “minimum carrying capacity”), and human tolerance carrying capacity (HTCC). Taking Chinese wild Asian elephants ( <italic>Elephas maximus</italic> ) in Yunnan as a case study, we clarify the conceptual role of each component in setting population targets, plot reference-based thresholds and current population levels (CPL) onto a multi-threshold axis using existing empirical data to show wide variation for contextual scenarios. We further analysed interactions among these components to build a scenario reference tool that facilitate reference-based PTL identification for population target setting of conflict-prone threatened species. Matching PTL options with this tool helps practitioners clarify target-setting approaches, identify lower-conflict management strategies, and avoid over-reliance on a single target value. This work questions the common isolated use of ECC in population target-setting, advocating an integrated approach that prioritizes HTCC and stage-based, objective-guided targets. It reveals the dynamic complexity of carrying capacity thresholds and implementation considerations, while the case study underscores the need to align national land-use policies with local conservation rules for Asian elephant habitat management. The framework can support evidence-based population target-setting for other conflict-prone threatened species, pending further field validation and refinement. </p>