Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p> This study investigates the long-run cointegration between socio-economic drivers and environmental sustainability in Nigeria, drawing on the I = PAT model to examine the roles of population growth, affluence, urbanisation, economic development, and technological innovation. Particular attention is given to assessing the empirical validity of the constant returns to scale (CRS) assumption within the context of a developing economy. Annual data spanning 2002 to 2023 are analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to estimate both short- and long-run relationships. The findings reveal a stable long-run equilibrium among the variables, supported by a highly significant error correction term of − 0.666914, and p-value of 0.00, indicating rapid adjustment towards equilibrium following short-run shocks. The results demonstrate that rising affluence and accelerated urbanisation significantly exacerbate environmental degradation through increased emissions, resource consumption, and pressure on ecological systems. Although technological innovation has the potential to mitigate environmental deterioration, its effectiveness depends critically on institutional quality, regulatory capacity, and environmental governance. While the cointegration results provide partial support for the CRS assumption, they also reveal the presence of non-linear dynamics and environmental externalities that limit its practical applicability. The study underscores the importance of integrated urban planning, strengthened environmental regulation, and sustainability-oriented technological innovation to reconcile economic growth with environmental protection. It contributes to the literature by providing robust empirical evidence on the long-run interplay between socio-economic development and environmental sustainability in Nigeria. <bold>JEL Codes: Q52, O3, Q00</bold> </p>