Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Urbanization has intensified the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon, affecting energy consumption, environmental sustainability, and the thermal comfort of urban residents. This study assessed the Surface Urban Heat Island characteristics of Kosofe, Shomolu, and Ikeja Local Government Areas of Lagos State from 2000 to 2024. It evaluated the effectiveness of climate policies aligned with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 in mitigating urban heating. Landsat imagery obtained from the United States Geological Survey and administrative boundary data from DIVA-GIS were used to derive the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) in ArcGIS 10.8. Bivariate linear regression was employed to examine the relationship between NDVI and LST across the study period. The results revealed a changing NDVI–LST relationship over time. In 2000, a strong association was observed (R = 0.970; R² = 0.942), indicating that vegetation accounted for a substantial proportion of LST variation. By 2015, the relationship reached its highest level (R = 0.995; R² = 0.991), while maximum LST increased to 48.9°C, suggesting growing anthropogenic influence. In 2024, the relationship weakened considerably (R = 0.393; R² = 0.154) as NDVI declined to 0.13, reflecting increased impervious surfaces and intensified urban heating. The findings indicate that existing climate-related interventions have not sufficiently curbed rising urban temperatures. The study recommends a policy realignment that prioritizes urban greening, ecological restoration, and thermally resilient urban design to mitigate the growing UHI effect and enhance environmental sustainability and urban liveability in Lagos State.</p>