Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Free-ranging dogs pose considerable challenges to public health, biodiversity conservation, and animal welfare. Although release-based management programs have seen success in some countries, they are not permitted in Japan. To remove free-ranging dog populations, sustained effort is needed, but required intensity to achieve eradication, especially in local areas, remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to quantify the capture intensity required to eradicate a free-ranging dog population using population viability analysis. A two-stage Leslie matrix model was parameterized with population estimates from camera-trap surveys, placental scar counts, and published survival rates. Population dynamics were simulated over 10 years using 1,000 Monte Carlo iterations. The relative contributions of demographic parameters to population growth were estimated using elasticity analysis. The estimated population growth rate was λ = 1.467 annually, indicating the population could double within 22 months without intervention. Simulations showed that an annual capture of 45 adult dogs was required to achieve eradication within 10 years. Adult survival contributed substantially more to population growth than did reproduction (86.8% vs. 3.7%). The sustained removal of adult dogs, alongside reductions in anthropogenic food resources, is likely to be an effective strategy for eradication under demographic conditions similar to those observed in the present study.</p>