Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>In fragile and climate-exposed settings, household shock exposure alone does not reveal which families become food insecure, use erosive coping strategies or remain outside formal support systems. This study examined these linked dimensions in Somalia using nationally representative data from the Somalia Integrated Household Budget Survey 2022. Survey-weighted descriptive analysis and logistic regression were used to estimate the prevalence and correlates of household-reported climate-livelihood shocks, moderate/severe food insecurity, erosive coping, formal support receipt and protection gaps. Climate-livelihood shocks affected 70.8% of households, while 42.8% experienced moderate/severe food insecurity and 18.3% reported erosive coping. Formal support reached only 4.1% of households, and 17.1% met the protection-gap definition of shock exposure, no formal support and erosive coping. In adjusted models, shock exposure was associated with higher odds of moderate/severe food insecurity (adjusted odds ratio 1.91, 95% confidence interval 1.63–2.25) and erosive coping (14.62, 9.37–22.80). Drought-related livestock loss was a consistent marker of protection gaps among shock-exposed households. Nomadic and livestock-owning households carried the highest descriptive burdens. The findings show that sustainable resilience planning in Somalia requires moving beyond shock counts toward integrated targeting that links food insecurity, coping pressure and support exclusion. SIHBS-style household surveys can complement early-warning systems by identifying households absorbing livelihood losses without formal protection.</p>