Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Anthropogenic climate change affects health through pathways beyond direct weather exposure, yet attribution studies largely focus on direct impacts in high-income settings and rarely capture agriculturally mediated effects. We present an attribution framework quantifying health and migration impacts of climate change-driven crop yield losses in rural Burkina Faso. Integrating factual and counterfactual climate simulations, machine-learning crop-yield models, and life tables from the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, we estimate farmer out-migration and child mortality attributable to climate-induced yield reductions. Over 1984–2016, climate change contributed to an ~8.0% yield reduction, a 1.9% increase in farmer out-migration, 2.3% more deaths among children <5 across all households, and 12.6% more child deaths in households experiencing out-migration. These results demonstrate that climate change has already produced measurable agriculturally mediated impacts on vulnerable rural populations in the Sahel, highlighting the need for effective and ambitious adaptation policies.</p>