Impacts of El Niño and the Strait of Hormuz Closure on Food Security

<jats:p>What are the expected impacts of a strong El Niño effect combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict in Iran on food security in 2026-2027? What are the implications of funding cuts for humanitarian response? Although the likely impacts of these events and the regions most vulnerable are understood in broad terms, there is a great deal of uncertainty inherent in estimating the magnitude of impacts and predicting in detail how the two events will interact. Their impacts at the global level and at the country level are diverse, vary significantly for different crops and different locations, and depend on the evolving characteristics of this year’s El Niño, the duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure, the timings of these events in relation to the growing season in each location, and on a range of factors particular to each local context.</jats:p>