Accuracy of learning goals and academic achievement: a panel study in an online course

<jats:p>&lt;p&gt;Goal setting is widely used in online education and is considered a factor contributing to student motivation and academic performance. However, existing research often overlooks how accurately students formulate their goals and how this accuracy relates to prior learning experience. This study investigates the relationship between goal-setting accuracy and academic performance, as well as the factors associated with setting realistic or unrealistic goals. The analysis draws on panel data from an online preparatory course (N = 426), where students set grade goals before each test. The theoretical framework combines Goal-Setting Theory and Calibration Theory. Random effects panel logistic regression models were used in the analysis. Results show that students who formulate specific grade goals tend to perform better on average. Goal accuracy is positively associated with academic outcomes, while overestimated goals are linked to lower performance and underestimated goals to higher scores. The analysis also reveals that prior knowledge and active course engagement are associated with a lower likelihood of goal overestimation. The paper concludes by emphasizing the need to consider goal accuracy in instructional design and in fostering students&amp;rsquo; academic self-regulation.&lt;/p&gt;</jats:p>